The Rational Moderate

Updated as public data is released

The tracker

The public numbers that move week to week, each with its source, its release schedule and its history. Nothing here is a forecast.

What changed this week

  1. Federal debt, to the penny $40.24T, down $18.2B since Oct. 1
  2. 10-year Treasury yield 5.28%, up 0.04 points since Oct. 1
  3. 30-year mortgage rate 7.28%, Last full month, Sept. 2026: 6.86%, up 0.19 points from August
  4. Regular gas, U.S. average $4.47, down $0.01 on the week

New observations in the seven days before our latest retrieval, .

Signals

Every signal in one table

Official indicators economists watch for recession risk and inflation. Some have a published trigger or reference line (for the yield curve, a research convention); others are shown as a gap from a goal or an estimate, and the New York Fed’s model has no threshold at all. Signals, not forecasts.

NBER has not announced a business cycle peak since February 2020 (as of ).

Sahm rule (real-time)

0.00

Range -0.07 to 0.43 over the last 12 values; latest 0.00 (Sept. 2026). Dashed line: Trigger 0.50.

· percentage points

Within range

Claudia Sahm via FRED · monthly · current

10-year minus 3-month spread

0.90

Range 0.05 to 0.90 over the last 13 values; latest 0.90 (Sept. 2026). Dashed line: Research convention: inversion (below 0).

· percentage points, monthly average

Not inverted

Oct. 2026 to date: 1.08

Treasury via FRED · daily, monthly average · refresh pending

Financial conditions (NFCI)

-0.548

Range -0.571 to -0.461 over the last 53 values; latest -0.548 (week ending Sept. 25, 2026). Dashed line: Average conditions, 0.

· index, standard deviations from average

Looser than average

Chicago Fed via FRED · weekly · refresh pending

PCE inflation vs. the 2% goal

3.4%

Range 2.7% to 3.8% over the last 13 values; latest 3.4% (Aug. 2026). Dashed line: 2% goal.

· change from a year earlier

1.4 points above the 2% goal

BEA via FRED · monthly · current

Unemployment vs. CBO’s noncyclical rate

4.2%

Range 4.1% to 4.5% over the last 12 values; latest 4.2% (Sept. 2026). Dashed line: CBO estimate, 4.39%.

· of the labor force

0.19 points below CBO’s estimate (4.39%)

BLS and CBO via FRED: UNRATE, NROU · monthly · current

NY Fed recession probability model

13.9%

Range 13.9% to 28.8% over the last 13 values; latest 13.9% (Aug. 2027).

For · model estimate

The New York Fed’s model estimate, made from the Aug. 2026 spread. No status: the publisher sets no threshold.

New York Fed · monthly · hand-updated; schedule unconfirmed · model as of August 2026

Cost of living

The State of the 2026 Economy: Why It Feels Worse Than the Data

Regular gas, U.S. average

$4.47

Range $2.78 to $4.50 over the last 53 values; latest $4.47 (week of Sept. 28, 2026).

down $0.01 on the week · $3.12 a year earlier (+43.2%)

EIA via FRED · weekly · refresh pending

Inflation, all items

3.35%

Range 2.39% to 4.17% over the last 12 values; latest 3.35% (Aug. 2026).

up 0.05 points from July · 2.94% a year earlier, up 0.41 points

core 2.45% · food at home 2.13%

BLS CPI via FRED · monthly · current

30-year mortgage rate

7.28%

Range 6.05% to 7.28% over the last 13 values; latest 7.28% (Oct. 2026, month to date).

Last full month, Sept. 2026: 6.86%, up 0.19 points from August · 6.35% in Sept. 2025, up 0.51 points

Freddie Mac via FRED · monthly · current

Eggs, a dozen

$2.27

Range $2.14 to $3.59 over the last 12 values; latest $2.27 (Aug. 2026).

up $0.08 from July · $3.59 a year earlier (-36.7%)

BLS via FRED · monthly · current

Milk, a gallon

$4.23

Range $4.00 to $4.32 over the last 12 values; latest $4.23 (Aug. 2026).

down $0.08 from July · $4.17 a year earlier (+1.4%)

BLS via FRED · monthly · current

White bread, a pound

$1.82

Range $1.79 to $1.87 over the last 12 values; latest $1.82 (Aug. 2026).

unchanged from July · $1.84 a year earlier (-1.0%)

BLS via FRED · monthly · current

Jobs and pay

Jobs Added vs. Jobs People Want: Why the Numbers Don’t Match Reality

New jobless claims

197K

Range 189K to 235K over the last 53 values; latest 197K (week ending Sept. 26, 2026).

down 1,000 on the week · 225K a year earlier (-12.4%)

DOL via FRED · weekly · refresh pending

Jobs added

+29K

Range -156K to +214K over the last 13 values; latest +29K (Sept. 2026).

Aug. 2026: +133K · Past 12 months: +496K

BLS via FRED · monthly · current

Unemployment rate

4.2%

Range 4.1% to 4.5% over the last 12 values; latest 4.2% (Sept. 2026).

up 0.1 points from August · 4.4% a year earlier, down 0.2 points

BLS via FRED · monthly · current

Underemployment (U-6)

7.6%

Range 7.6% to 8.7% over the last 12 values; latest 7.6% (Sept. 2026).

down 0.1 points from August · 8.1% a year earlier, down 0.5 points

BLS via FRED · monthly · current

Real hourly pay, past year

-0.23%

Range -0.80% to +1.24% over the last 12 values; latest -0.23% (Aug. 2026).

down 0.14 points from July · +1.01% a year earlier, down 1.24 points

pay +3.11% · prices +3.35%

BLS via FRED: CES0500000003, CPIAUCSL · monthly · current

Federal money

Federal debt, to the penny

$40.24T

Range $37.85T to $40.26T over the last 252 values; latest $40.24T (Oct. 2, 2026).

down $18.2B since Oct. 1 · $37.88T a year earlier (+6.2%)

Treasury Fiscal Data · daily · refresh pending