The Rational Moderate

Evidence first. Every number sourced. Every chart explorable.

Governance, interactive

Six Things People Believe About the Midterms, Checked Against the Data

One of six midterm beliefs holds: turnout is always “low” when that means below presidential years. The president's party lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterms since 1946. In three studies, mail rules had no partisan effect; the turnout edge has shifted. This is not a forecast.

76 sources, every one linked; 2 live charts with their data

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Economics

The Economy, by the Numbers: A Live Dashboard

Unemployment, inflation, wages, job gains, mortgage rates and consumer sentiment in one place, each chart drawn from official data you can download, and refreshed as new figures are released.

, 6 live charts, 9 sources

AI

Artificial Intelligence: Between Promise and Peril

AI is becoming infrastructure. Here’s what it can actually do today, the benefits worth pursuing, the risks we can’t ignore, and the rules that keep progress from turning into damage.

, 5 sources, updated

Business

Is Universal Basic Income Inevitable?

UBI is moving from theory to live policy debate. Here is what drives the interest, what pilot evidence suggests, and why cost and design choices determine feasibility.

, 11 sources, corrected

Economics

Corporate Conglomerates: When Scale Becomes Systemic Risk

Consolidation can look like efficiency, but it can create single points of failure. Here is how conglomerates become de facto infrastructure, why resilience matters, and what policy can do.

, 8 sources, corrected

Governance

Why Local Journalism Is a National Security Issue

As local newsrooms collapse, corruption rises, disaster response weakens, disinformation spreads, and local elections lose scrutiny. Local journalism is democratic infrastructure.

, 15 sources, corrected