The Rational ModerateSearch

Data

The data behind our charts

Each dataset names its source and series, when we retrieved it, how often it is released, and the date it runs through. Download any of them as CSV. Alongside the data behind our posts' charts are the economic and fiscal series we track, some of which no post uses yet.

Status compares the data's as-of date with how often it is released. "Current" means no newer release is certainly out yet. "Refresh pending" means the next release is past due on our schedule, allowing for the publisher's usual delay, and we have not pulled it in.

Trade by country: the Census, BEA, USTR and World Bank trade datasets below are shown partner by partner, with a globe, in the Trade section.

83 datasets
DatasetSeriesRecent valuesAs ofRowsStatusDownloadUsed in
10-year minus 3-month spread, monthly average: back-test of inversion and the site's 0 to +0.25 near zoneThe Rational Moderate, computed from FRED dataUnits: one row per episode; extreme_value in the units of yield-curve-10y3m.csvT10Y3M, USRECNot a time series2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-09-2629CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of 10-year minus 3-month spread, monthly average: back-test of inversion and the site's 0 to +0.25 near zone
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
10-year Treasury yieldFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: percent, market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, daily, business days onlyDGS10Range 4.75% to 5.29% over the last 24 values; latest 5.28% (2026-10-02).2026-10-02Released dailyRetrieved 2026-10-055,193Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-09CSV of 10-year Treasury yield
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
30-year fixed mortgage rateFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: percent, monthly average of weekly ratesMORTGAGE30USRange 6.05% to 7.28% over the last 24 values; latest 7.28% (2026-10-01).2026-10-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05322CurrentNewer release expected by 2027-01-01CSV of 30-year fixed mortgage rate
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or higher, 2024U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year, table-based Summary FileUnits: percent of the population 25 years and overACS 2024 1-year detailed table B15003 (B15003_E022, B15003_E023, B15003_E024, B15003_E025; B15003_E001)Not a time series2024-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-01CSV of Adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or higher, 2024
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
AI benchmark results run by Epoch AIEpoch AI, AI Benchmarking HubUnits: score: fraction of the benchmark's problems solved, 0 to 1 (Epoch's scale 1.0); stderr: Epoch's standard error, same unitsbenchmark_data.zip: gpqa_diamond.csv, frontiermath_tiers_1_3_v2.csv, frontiermath_tier_4_v2.csv, frontiermath.csv, frontiermath_tier_4.csv, swe_bench_verified.csv, math_level_5.csv, otis_mock_aime_2024_2025.csvNot a time series2026-08-30Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-09-26943CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of AI benchmark results run by Epoch AI
AI milestones with their primary sourcesThe Rational Moderate, compiled from the primary sources listed in each rowUnits: none: one row per event; date is YYYY, YYYY-MM or YYYY-MM-DD, as precise as the source readcompiled list, one row per milestoneNot a time series2026-09-26Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-09-2614CurrentNewer release expected by 2029-06-26CSV of AI milestones with their primary sources
Average prices: eggs, milk and breadFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: dollars, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted: eggs per dozen (Grade A, large), milk per gallon (fresh, whole, fortified), bread per pound (white, pan)APU0000708111, APU0000709112, APU0000702111Range $2.14 to $6.23 over the last 24 values; latest $2.27 (2026-08-01).2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05319CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Average prices: eggs, milk and bread
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Average residential electricity price by state, annual, 1990 to 2024U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-861 historical state data (HS861)Units: cents per kilowatthourHS861 1990-2009.xlsx and HS861 2010-.xlsx, sheet Total Electric Industry, RESIDENTIAL PriceRange 8.44 to 16.48 over the last 24 values; latest 16.48 (2024).2024-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0235Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-01CSV of Average residential electricity price by state, annual, 1990 to 2024
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Average residential electricity price, January to July 2026U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Tables 5.6.B and 5.6.AUnits: cents per kilowatthourEPM Table 5.6.B, Residential, year to date through July 2026; Table 5.6.A, Residential, July 2026Not a time series2026-07-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Average residential electricity price, January to July 2026
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Best Epoch-run benchmark score to date, by model release dateThe Rational Moderate, computed from Epoch AI benchmark dataUnits: score: fraction of problems solved, 0 to 1; one row each time a benchmark's best score risescomputed from src/data/ai/epoch-benchmarks.csvNot a time series2026-08-13Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-09-2693CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Best Epoch-run benchmark score to date, by model release date
CFNAI-MA3: back-test of the -0.70 line and the site's -0.40 to -0.70 near zoneThe Rational Moderate, computed from FRED dataUnits: one row per episode; extreme_value in the units of cfnai.csvCFNAIMA3, USRECNot a time series2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-09-2630CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of CFNAI-MA3: back-test of the -0.70 line and the site's -0.40 to -0.70 near zone
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Chicago Fed National Activity Index and its three-month averageFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: index, standard deviation units (0 = growth at the historical trend rate), not seasonally adjustedCFNAI, CFNAIMA3Range -0.39 to 0.08 over the last 24 values; latest 0.01 (2026-08-01).2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05714CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Chicago Fed National Activity Index and its three-month average
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and adjusted index (ANFCI)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: index, standard deviation units (0 = average conditions; positive = tighter than average), not seasonally adjusted; weekly, week ending FridayNFCI, ANFCIRange -0.56 to -0.49 over the last 24 values; latest -0.55 (2026-09-25).2026-09-25Released weeklyRetrieved 2026-10-052,908CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-10-16CSV of Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and adjusted index (ANFCI)
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Customs duties receipts: gross, refunds and net (Monthly Treasury Statement)U.S. Department of the Treasury, Fiscal DataUnits: dollars; net = gross receipts minus refundsMonthly Treasury Statement Table 4, Receipts of the U.S. Government (v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_4), line "Customs Duties", fields current_month_gross_rcpt_amt, current_month_refund_amt, current_month_net_rcpt_amt, current_fytd_gross_rcpt_amt, current_fytd_refund_amt, current_fytd_net_rcpt_amtRange $7.4B to $33.1B over the last 24 values; latest $23.4B (2026-08-31).2026-08-31Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05138CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Customs duties receipts: gross, refunds and net (Monthly Treasury Statement)
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Employment Cost Index: wages and salaries, private industryFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: index, December 2005 = 100, seasonally adjustedECIWAGRange 141.6 to 179.01 over the last 24 values; latest 179.01 (2026-04-01).2026-04-01Released quarterlyRetrieved 2026-10-05102CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-12-01CSV of Employment Cost Index: wages and salaries, private industry
Employment-population ratioFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: percent of the civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and over, seasonally adjustedEMRATIORange 58.9% to 60.1% over the last 24 values; latest 59.2% (2026-09-01).2026-09-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05320CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-12-01CSV of Employment-population ratio
Federal budget deficit, month and fiscal year to date (Monthly Treasury Statement)U.S. Department of the Treasury, Fiscal DataUnits: dollars; positive is a deficit, negative is a surplus, as the MTS prints it ("Deficit/Surplus (-)")Monthly Treasury Statement Table 1, Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and the Deficit/Surplus of the U.S. Government (v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1), field current_month_dfct_sur_amt: the calendar-month line and the "Year-to-Date" line under "FY <fiscal year>"Range -$258.4B to $432.3B over the last 24 values; latest $166.8B (2026-08-31).2026-08-31Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05138CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Federal budget deficit, month and fiscal year to date (Monthly Treasury Statement)
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Full Census names for Schedule C names cut short by the text file's field widthU.S. Census Bureau, Schedule C, Country Codes and Descriptions (HTML table)Units: none: a lookup tableSchedule C code 7660Not a time series2026-09-26Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-09-261CurrentNewer release expected by 2029-06-26CSV of Full Census names for Schedule C names cut short by the text file's field width
GDP per capita, 2025U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP by State (SAGDP1), and U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 populationUnits: current dollars per personSAGDP1 line 3, Current-dollar GDP (millions of current dollars); NST-EST2025-ALLDATA POPESTIMATE2025Not a time series2025-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251CurrentNewer release expected by 2027-10-01CSV of GDP per capita, 2025
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Grocery prices: CPI food at home, price levelFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: index, 1982-84 = 100, seasonally adjustedCUSR0000SAF11Range 306.4 to 321.45 over the last 24 values; latest 321.34 (2026-08-01).2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05319CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Grocery prices: CPI food at home, price level
Hand-made join rules for non-ISO Census codes, map shapes and World Bank entriesThe Rational Moderate, from U.S. Census Bureau Schedule C, Natural Earth and World Bank WDIUnits: none: a lookup tableOVERRIDES and NE_NO_CENSUS in scripts/data/fetch_trade.pyNot a time series2026-09-26Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-09-2624CurrentNewer release expected by 2029-06-26CSV of Hand-made join rules for non-ISO Census codes, map shapes and World Bank entries
Harmonized System 2-digit chapter names (Schedule B 2026)U.S. Census Bureau, Schedule B 2026Units: none: a lookup tableSchedule B 2026 - Browse ChaptersNot a time series2026-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-09-2697CurrentNewer release expected by 2028-10-01CSV of Harmonized System 2-digit chapter names (Schedule B 2026)
Home prices relative to median household incomeFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: index, 2001 = 100CSUSHPISA, MEHOINUSA646NRange 103.1 to 149.24 over the last 24 values; latest 140.15 (2025-01-01).2025-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0539CurrentNewer release expected by 2027-10-01CSV of Home prices relative to median household income
Homeownership rate, 2024U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year, table-based Summary FileUnits: percent of occupied housing unitsACS 2024 1-year detailed table B25003 (B25003_E002; B25003_E001)Not a time series2024-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-01CSV of Homeownership rate, 2024
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Inflation: consumer prices, overall and coreFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: percent change from a year earlierCPIAUCSL, CPILFESL, CUSR0000SAF11Range 2.33% to 4.17% over the last 24 values; latest 3.35% (2026-08-01).2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05319CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Inflation: consumer prices, overall and core
Initial claims for unemployment insuranceFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: number of initial claims, seasonally adjusted, week ending SaturdayICSARange 189K to 230K over the last 24 values; latest 197K (2026-09-26).2026-09-26Released weeklyRetrieved 2026-10-051,396CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-10-17CSV of Initial claims for unemployment insurance
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Labor force participation rate by state, monthly, January 1976 to August 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS); national column from the CPS via FREDUnits: percent of the civilian noninstitutional population, seasonally adjustedLASST<FIPS>0000000000008 for each state (column = USPS code); US = FRED CIVPARTRange 61.4% to 62.7% over the last 24 values; latest 61.6% (2026-08-01).2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-02608CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Labor force participation rate by state, monthly, January 1976 to August 2026
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Labor force participation rate, August 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)Units: percent of the civilian noninstitutional population, seasonally adjustedLASST<FIPS>0000000000008 (labor force participation rate, seasonally adjusted), for example LASST060000000000008Not a time series2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Labor force participation rate, August 2026
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Life expectancy at birth, 2022National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. State Life Tables, 2022 (National Vital Statistics Reports Vol. 74, No. 12)Units: yearsNVSR 74-12, <ST>1.xlsx (ex at age 0) and <ST>4.xlsx (standard error of life expectancy at age 0, both sexes)Not a time series2022-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251CurrentNewer release expected by 2027-01-01CSV of Life expectancy at birth, 2022
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Median age, July 1, 2025U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025 (SC-EST2025-AGESEX)Units: yearsSC-EST2025-AGESEX-<FIPS> (one workbook per state), row 'Median age (years)', 2025, Both SexesNot a time series2025-07-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251CurrentNewer release expected by 2028-04-01CSV of Median age, July 1, 2025
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Median gross rent, 2024U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year, table-based Summary FileUnits: dollars per month, renter-occupied housing units paying cash rentACS 2024 1-year detailed table B25064 (B25064_E001, B25064_M001)Not a time series2024-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-01CSV of Median gross rent, 2024
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Median household income, 2024U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year, table-based Summary FileUnits: dollars (2024 inflation-adjusted), per householdACS 2024 1-year detailed table B19013 (B19013_E001, B19013_M001)Not a time series2024-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-01CSV of Median household income, 2024
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Median value of owner-occupied homes, 2024U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year, table-based Summary FileUnits: dollars, owner-occupied housing unitsACS 2024 1-year detailed table B25077 (B25077_E001, B25077_M001)Not a time series2024-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-01CSV of Median value of owner-occupied homes, 2024
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Monthly job gainsFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: thousands of jobs, change from prior monthPAYEMSRange -156 to 237 over the last 24 values; latest 29 (2026-09-01).2026-09-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05141CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-12-01CSV of Monthly job gains
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
NBER business cycle peaks and troughs, derived from FRED's USRECThe Rational Moderate, computed from FRED dataUnits: months (peak and trough dated the first of the month); contraction_months counts recession months, trough includedUSRECNot a time series2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-09-2634CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of NBER business cycle peaks and troughs, derived from FRED's USREC
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
NBER recession indicator (1 = recession month)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: 1 in a recession month, 0 otherwise; the peak month is not a recession month and the trough month isUSRECRange 0 to 0 over the last 24 values; latest 0 (2026-09-01).2026-09-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-052,062CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-12-01CSV of NBER recession indicator (1 = recession month)
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Net interest outlays, month and fiscal year to date (Monthly Treasury Statement)U.S. Department of the Treasury, Fiscal DataUnits: dollars, net outlaysMonthly Treasury Statement Table 9, Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government (v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_9), line "Net Interest" under Net Outlays, fields current_month_rcpt_outly_amt and current_fytd_rcpt_outly_amtRange $36.9B to $107B over the last 24 values; latest $85.6B (2026-08-31).2026-08-31Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05138CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Net interest outlays, month and fiscal year to date (Monthly Treasury Statement)
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
New York Fed yield-curve model: probability of a US recession twelve months aheadFederal Reserve Bank of New York, Capital Markets researchUnits: percent: Treasury yields and the spread (percentage points) are monthly averages; recession_probability_pct is the model's probability of a recession in the row's month, estimated from the spread 12 months earlierallmonth.xls, sheet "rec_prob"Range 13.88% to 57.06% over the last 24 values; latest 13.88% (2027-08-01).2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-09-26824CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of New York Fed yield-curve model: probability of a US recession twelve months ahead
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
NFCI: back-test of readings above 0, with the site's -0.25 to +0.25 near-average zone as contextThe Rational Moderate, computed from FRED dataUnits: one row per episode; extreme_value in the units of nfci.csvNFCI, USRECNot a time series2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-09-2644CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of NFCI: back-test of readings above 0, with the site's -0.25 to +0.25 near-average zone as context
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Party identification of Black Americans, ANES, 1952 onwardANES Guide to Public Opinion and Electoral BehaviorUnits: percent of Black, non-Hispanic respondents with a valid 3-point party identification, weighted as in the ANES Guide; respondents_weighted is the Guide's weighted valid count for that group and yearANES Guide data files party_identification_3_pt.csv (ANES variable VCF0303; group race, subgroup "Black, non-Hispanic") and strength_of_pid.csv (VCF0305; group pid and race, subgroup "Black Democrats")Range 75.2% to 94.4% over the last 24 values; latest 78.8% (2024-01-01).2024-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-09-2831CurrentNewer release expected by 2030-01-01CSV of Party identification of Black Americans, ANES, 1952 onward
PCE price index and its change from a year earlierFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: pcepi: index, 2017 = 100, seasonally adjusted; pce_yoy_pct: percent change from the same month a year earlierPCEPIRange 2.26 to 3.82 over the last 24 values; latest 3.42 (2026-08-01).2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05812CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of PCE price index and its change from a year earlier
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Per capita personal income, 2025U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State Annual Personal Income (SAINC1)Units: current dollars per personSAINC1 line 3, Per capita personal income (dollars)Not a time series2025-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251CurrentNewer release expected by 2027-10-01CSV of Per capita personal income, 2025
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Population and GDP for each US trading partner (World Bank WDI)The World Bank, World Development IndicatorsUnits: population: persons, midyear estimate; GDP: current US dollarsSP.POP.TOTL (Population, total); NY.GDP.MKTP.CD (GDP, current US$)Not a time series2025-12-31Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-09-26241CurrentNewer release expected by 2028-09-30CSV of Population and GDP for each US trading partner (World Bank WDI)
Population growth, July 1, 2024 to July 1, 2025U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025Units: percent change over one yearNST-EST2025-ALLDATA, POPESTIMATE2024 and POPESTIMATE2025Not a time series2025-07-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251CurrentNewer release expected by 2028-04-01CSV of Population growth, July 1, 2024 to July 1, 2025
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Poverty rate, 2024U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year, table-based Summary FileUnits: percent of people for whom poverty status is determinedACS 2024 1-year detailed table B17001 (B17001_E002; B17001_E001)Not a time series2024-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-01CSV of Poverty rate, 2024
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Real average hourly earnings, all private employeesFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: avg_hourly_earnings: dollars, seasonally adjusted; cpi_all_items: index, 1982-84 = 100, seasonally adjusted; real_avg_hourly_earnings: 1982-84 dollars; real_ahe_yoy_pct: percent change from a year earlierCES0500000003, CPIAUCSLRange 35.34 to 37.76 over the last 24 values; latest 37.76 (2026-08-01).2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05246CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Real average hourly earnings, all private employees
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Real per capita personal income, 2024U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Personal Income by State (SARPI)Units: constant 2017 dollars per personSARPI line 2, Real per capita personal income (constant (2017) dollars)Not a time series2024-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-01CSV of Real per capita personal income, 2024
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Regional price parity, all items, 2024U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Price Parities by State (SARPP)Units: index, United States = 100SARPP line 1, RPPs: All itemsNot a time series2024-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-01CSV of Regional price parity, all items, 2024
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Regular gasoline price, U.S. averageFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: dollars per gallon, regular grade, all formulations, retail price including taxes, weekly (Monday)GASREGWRange $3.78 to $4.5 over the last 24 values; latest $4.47 (2026-09-28).2026-09-28Released weeklyRetrieved 2026-10-051,396CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-10-19CSV of Regular gasoline price, U.S. average
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Regular gasoline prices by area: U.S., PADD regions and subregions, and 9 statesU.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel UpdateUnits: dollars per gallon, regular grade, all formulations, retail cash pump price including all taxes, as of 8:00 AM local time MondayEMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_R10_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_R1X_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_R1Y_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_R1Z_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_R20_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_R30_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_R40_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_R50_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_R5XCA_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_SCA_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_SCO_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_SFL_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_SMA_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_SMN_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_SNY_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_SOH_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_STX_DPG, EMM_EPMR_PTE_SWA_DPGRange $3.78 to $4.5 over the last 24 values; latest $4.48 (2026-09-21).2026-09-21Released weeklyRetrieved 2026-09-261,884Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-12CSV of Regular gasoline prices by area: U.S., PADD regions and subregions, and 9 states
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Renter households paying 30 percent or more of income on rent, 2024U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year, table-based Summary FileUnits: percent of renter-occupied housing units for which the share is computedACS 2024 1-year detailed table B25070 (B25070_E007, B25070_E008, B25070_E009, B25070_E010; B25070_E001, B25070_E011)Not a time series2024-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-01CSV of Renter households paying 30 percent or more of income on rent, 2024
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Reported voter turnout, citizens 18 and older, November 2024U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November 2024 Voting and Registration Supplement, Table 4aUnits: percent of the citizen voting-age population who reported voting (self-reported, survey)CPS November 2024, Table 4a, Percent voted (Citizen) and its margin of errorNot a time series2024-11-05Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251CurrentNewer release expected by 2027-08-05CSV of Reported voter turnout, citizens 18 and older, November 2024
  • A series we track; no post uses it yet
Republican presidential share minus House share in the South, 1976 to 2016MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL)Units: percentage points (gap_pts, gap_contested_pts); percent of the two-party vote (the _pct columns)U.S. House 1976-2018 (1976-2018-house.csv, GitHub MEDSL/constituency-returns at commit fe67c05) and U.S. President 1976-2024 (1976-2024-president.csv, Harvard Dataverse doi:10.7910/DVN/42MVDX)Range -4.34 to 19.73 over the last 11 values; latest -3.82 (2016-01-01).2016-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-09-2811Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2021-07-01CSV of Republican presidential share minus House share in the South, 1976 to 2016
Republican share of the two-party presidential vote in the South, 1976 onwardMIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL)Units: percent of the Democratic plus Republican presidential vote (rep_two_party_pct); votes (rep_votes, dem_votes); number of states and D.C. counted (units_counted)U.S. President 1976-2024, file 1976-2024-president.csvRange 45.36% to 61.67% over the last 13 values; latest 55.6% (2024-01-01).2024-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-09-2813CurrentNewer release expected by 2029-07-01CSV of Republican share of the two-party presidential vote in the South, 1976 onward
Resident population, July 1, 2025U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025Units: personsNST-EST2025-ALLDATA, POPESTIMATE2025Not a time series2025-07-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251CurrentNewer release expected by 2028-04-01CSV of Resident population, July 1, 2025
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Sahm rule recession indicator, real-timeFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: percentage points, seasonally adjusted: the three-month average unemployment rate minus the lowest three-month average of the previous 12 monthsSAHMREALTIMERange -0.07 to 0.5 over the last 24 values; latest 0 (2026-09-01).2026-09-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05801CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-12-01CSV of Sahm rule recession indicator, real-time
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Sahm rule, real-time: back-test of the 0.50 trigger and the site's 0.40 to 0.49 near zoneThe Rational Moderate, computed from FRED dataUnits: one row per episode; extreme_value in the units of sahm-realtime.csvSAHMREALTIME, USRECNot a time series2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-09-2633CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Sahm rule, real-time: back-test of the 0.50 trigger and the site's 0.40 to 0.49 near zone
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Share of people without health insurance, 2024U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year, table-based Summary FileUnits: percent of the civilian noninstitutionalized populationACS 2024 1-year detailed table B27001 (B27001_E005, B27001_E008, B27001_E011, B27001_E014, B27001_E017, B27001_E020, B27001_E023, B27001_E026, B27001_E029, B27001_E033, B27001_E036, B27001_E039, B27001_E042, B27001_E045, B27001_E048, B27001_E051, B27001_E054, B27001_E057; B27001_E001)Not a time series2024-01-01Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-01CSV of Share of people without health insurance, 2024
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Share of U.S. businesses using AI (Census BTOS), two question versionsU.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS)Units: percent of businesses answering Yes (of all responding businesses, including those answering Do not know); se columns are standard errors in percentage pointsBTOS question 7, answer Yes, national: National.xlsx (updated wording) and AI Core Questions.xlsx, sheet National Estimates (original wording); standard errors from each file's SE sheetRange 17.2% to 23.8% over the last 22 values; latest 23.8% (2026-09-06).2026-09-06Released every two weeksRetrieved 2026-09-2679Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-11CSV of Share of U.S. businesses using AI (Census BTOS), two question versions
Shelter prices: CPI shelter, level and change from a year earlierFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: shelter_index: index, 1982-84 = 100, seasonally adjusted; shelter_yoy_pct: percent change from a year earlierCUSR0000SAH1Range 402.9 to 430.23 over the last 24 values; latest 430.23 (2026-08-01).2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05319CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Shelter prices: CPI shelter, level and change from a year earlier
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State gasoline tax rates, FHWA Highway Statistics 2024Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics, Table MF-121TUnits: cents per gallon, state per-gallon gasoline tax only (excludes percentage sales-type taxes and local taxes)MF-121T (2024 Reporting Period), sheet MF121TP1, Gasoline RateNot a time series2024-12-31Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-09-2651CurrentNewer release expected by 2027-09-30CSV of State gasoline tax rates, FHWA Highway Statistics 2024
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Student loans owned and securitized, outstandingFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: dollars, not seasonally adjusted, end of quarterSLOASMRange $1.7T to $1.9T over the last 24 values; latest $1.9T (2026-06-01).2026-06-01Released quarterlyRetrieved 2026-10-0582CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-12-01CSV of Student loans owned and securitized, outstanding
Student loans: percent of balance 90 or more days delinquentFederal Reserve Bank of New York, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and CreditUnits: percent of student loan balance 90 or more days delinquent or in defaultHHD_C_Report_2026Q2.xlsx, sheet "Page 12 Data" (Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type), column "STUDENT LOAN"Range 0.49% to 10.6% over the last 24 values; latest 10.6% (2026-04-01).2026-04-01Released quarterlyRetrieved 2026-09-2594CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-12-01CSV of Student loans: percent of balance 90 or more days delinquent
The pinned URL slug of every Trade country page, by Census codeThe Rational Moderate, from U.S. Census Bureau Schedule C namesUnits: none: a lookup tabletrade-slugsNot a time series2026-09-26Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-09-26234CurrentNewer release expected by 2029-06-26CSV of The pinned URL slug of every Trade country page, by Census code
Three-year reincarceration rate of people released from state prison, United States, 2008 and 2019 release cohortsThe Council of State Governments Justice Center, 50 States, 1 Goal (April 2024)Units: percent of people released from state prison in the year who were reincarcerated in state prison within three yearspage 3, "Lower Recidivism: By the Numbers", and page 4, row "United States Total"Not a time series2019-01-01A one-time reportRetrieved 2026-10-032Not trackedNo newer edition is scheduledCSV of Three-year reincarceration rate of people released from state prison, United States, 2008 and 2019 release cohorts
Total public debt outstanding (Debt to the Penny)U.S. Department of the Treasury, Fiscal DataUnits: dollars, as of the close of each business dayDebt to the Penny (v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny), field tot_pub_debt_out_amt (Total Public Debt Outstanding)Range $40T to $40.3T over the last 24 values; latest $40.2T (2026-10-02).2026-10-02Released dailyRetrieved 2026-10-055,214Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-09CSV of Total public debt outstanding (Debt to the Penny)
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Training compute of notable AI models (Epoch AI)Epoch AI, Data on AI models (notable models)Units: FLOP (floating-point operations) of training compute, one row per model; plot on a log scale and label itnotable_ai_models.csvNot a time series2026-09-09Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-09-26540CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-12-01CSV of Training compute of notable AI models (Epoch AI)
U-6 underemployment rateFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: percent, seasonally adjustedU6RATERange 7.5% to 8.7% over the last 24 values; latest 7.6% (2026-09-01).2026-09-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05320CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-12-01CSV of U-6 underemployment rate
U.S. gross domestic product, nominalFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rateGDPRange $21.7T to $32.6T over the last 24 values; latest $32.6T (2026-04-01).2026-04-01Released quarterlyRetrieved 2026-10-05106CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-12-01CSV of U.S. gross domestic product, nominal
Unemployment rateFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: percentUNRATERange 4% to 4.5% over the last 24 values; latest 4.2% (2026-09-01).2026-09-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05320CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-12-01CSV of Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate by state, monthly, January 1976 to August 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS); national column from the CPS via FREDUnits: percent of the civilian labor force, seasonally adjustedLASST<FIPS>0000000000003 for each state (column = USPS code); US = FRED UNRATERange 4% to 4.5% over the last 24 values; latest 4.1% (2026-08-01).2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-02608CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Unemployment rate by state, monthly, January 1976 to August 2026
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Unemployment rate versus CBO's noncyclical rateFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: unemployment_rate: percent, seasonally adjusted; nrou_cbo: percent (CBO estimate, quarterly value repeated for each month of its quarter); unemployment_gap_pp: percentage pointsUNRATE, NROURange -0.41 to 0.1 over the last 24 values; latest -0.19 (2026-09-01).2026-09-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05944CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-12-01CSV of Unemployment rate versus CBO's noncyclical rate
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Unemployment rate, August 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)Units: percent of the civilian labor force, seasonally adjustedLASST<FIPS>0000000000003 (unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted), for example LASST060000000000003Not a time series2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-0251CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Unemployment rate, August 2026
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US direct investment positions by country, both directions, 2020 to 2025 (historical cost)U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Direct Investment by Country and IndustryUnits: millions of dollars, position at year end; cells kept as published. The outward title says historical-cost basis; the inward title says only "Position by Detailed Country"outward: U.S. Direct Investment Abroad: Direct Investment Position on a Historical-Cost Basis by Detailed Country, 2020-2025; inward: Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Position by Detailed Country, 2020-2025 (sheet Position)Not a time series2025-12-31Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-09-262,796CurrentNewer release expected by 2028-09-30CSV of US direct investment positions by country, both directions, 2020 to 2025 (historical cost)
US goods trade by country and year, 1985 to date: exports, general imports, balance, total, share and rankU.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade DivisionUnits: millions of dollars, nominal, not seasonally adjusted; share in percentCensus Trade in Goods by Country, country.xlsx (columns IYR, EYR)Not a time series2026-07-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-09-269,217CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of US goods trade by country and year, 1985 to date: exports, general imports, balance, total, share and rank
US goods trade by country, latest 24 monthsU.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade DivisionUnits: millions of dollars, nominal, not seasonally adjustedCensus Trade in Goods by Country, country.xlsx (columns IJAN..IDEC, EJAN..EDEC)Not a time series2026-07-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-09-265,923CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of US goods trade by country, latest 24 months
US trade agreements by partner (USTR)Office of the United States Trade RepresentativeUnits: none: one row per partner and agreementUSTR Free Trade Agreements page, each FTA's own page, and the Agreements on Reciprocal Trade pageNot a time series2026-09-26Released quarterlyRetrieved 2026-09-2631CurrentNewer release expected by 2027-03-01CSV of US trade agreements by partner (USTR)
US trade in goods and services by selected countries, balance of payments basis, 1999 to dateU.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisUnits: millions of dollars; quarters seasonally adjusted; cells kept as published (n.a. = not available)BEA U.S. Trade in Goods and Services by Selected Countries and Areas, 1999-present (trad0726-geo-time-series.xlsx), Tables 1 to 9Not a time series2026-04-01Released quarterlyRetrieved 2026-09-263,699CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-12-01CSV of US trade in goods and services by selected countries, balance of payments basis, 1999 to date
US trade in services by country and area, 2018 to 2025 (BEA Table 2.4)U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, International ServicesUnits: millions of dollars, annual; cells kept as publishedBEA International Services Table 2.4, U.S. Trade in Services, Expanded Geographic DetailNot a time series2025-12-31Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-09-261,896CurrentNewer release expected by 2028-09-30CSV of US trade in services by country and area, 2018 to 2025 (BEA Table 2.4)
US trading partners: Census Schedule C countries, with map and World Bank join keysU.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade DivisionUnits: none: a lookup table, one row per Census codeCensus Schedule C country.txt (code | name | ISO code), plus the non-Schedule C rows of country.xlsxNot a time series2026-09-26Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-09-26270CurrentNewer release expected by 2029-06-26CSV of US trading partners: Census Schedule C countries, with map and World Bank join keys
Wages versus pricesFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: percent change from a year earlierCES0500000003, CPIAUCSLRange 3.11% to 4.21% over the last 24 values; latest 3.11% (2026-08-01).2026-08-01Released monthlyRetrieved 2026-10-05224CurrentNewer release expected by 2026-11-01CSV of Wages versus prices
Which weekly gas price area each state is shown withU.S. Energy Information Administration, PADD definitionsUnits: none: a lookup table, one row per state and DCEIA PADD definitions (PADD 1A, 1B, 1C, 2, 3, 4, 5); EIA series EMM_EPMR_PTE_R5XCA_DPG titleNot a time series2026-09-26Released yearlyRetrieved 2026-09-2651CurrentNewer release expected by 2029-06-26CSV of Which weekly gas price area each state is shown with
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Yield curve: 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spreadFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FREDUnits: percentage points (10-year Treasury constant maturity yield minus 3-month Treasury constant maturity yield), not seasonally adjusted; daily, business days onlyT10Y3MRange 0.79 to 1.09 over the last 24 values; latest 1.09 (2026-10-05).2026-10-05Released dailyRetrieved 2026-10-0511,192Refresh pendingA newer release was expected by 2026-10-12CSV of Yield curve: 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread
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Refresh log

Every scheduled update to these datasets: the rows the source added, the earlier values it revised, and the date the data now runs through.

RefreshedDatasetNew rowsRevised rowsData as of
2026-10-05Yield curve: 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread4202026-10-05
2026-10-05Unemployment rate versus CBO's noncyclical rate102026-09-01
2026-10-0510-year Treasury yield402026-10-02
2026-10-05Sahm rule recession indicator, real-time102026-09-01
2026-10-05Real average hourly earnings, all private employees122026-08-01
2026-10-05PCE price index and its change from a year earlier1672026-08-01
2026-10-05Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and adjusted index (ANFCI)129002026-09-25
2026-10-05NBER recession indicator (1 = recession month)102026-09-01
2026-10-05Initial claims for unemployment insurance112026-09-26
2026-10-05Total public debt outstanding (Debt to the Penny)402026-10-02
2026-10-05Home prices relative to median household income0102025-01-01
2026-10-05Wages versus prices122026-08-01
2026-10-05Unemployment rate102026-09-01
2026-10-05U-6 underemployment rate102026-09-01
2026-10-05Monthly job gains122026-09-01
2026-10-0530-year fixed mortgage rate102026-10-01
2026-10-05U.S. gross domestic product, nominal0222026-04-01
2026-10-05Employment-population ratio102026-09-01
2026-09-30Yield curve: 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread2182026-09-29
2026-09-3010-year Treasury yield202026-09-28
2026-09-30Regular gasoline price, U.S. average102026-09-28
2026-09-30Total public debt outstanding (Debt to the Penny)202026-09-28