The tracker
Signals
Official indicators economists watch for recession risk and inflation, with the latest reading of each. Some have a published trigger or reference line (for the yield curve, a research convention); others are shown as a gap from a goal or an estimate, and the New York Fed’s model has no threshold at all. Signals, not forecasts.
None of the 3 signals with a trigger line is past it. NBER has not announced a business cycle peak since February 2020 (as of ).
| Signal | Latest reading | Data through | Status | Past its line? | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahm rule (real-time)How far the three-month average unemployment rate is above or below its lowest three-month average of the previous 12 months. | 0.00 percentage points | Within range | No. Publisher’s line: Trigger 0.50 | Claudia Sahm via FREDCurrent | |
| 10-year minus 3-month spreadWhat the U.S. government pays to borrow for 10 years minus what it pays to borrow for 3 months. Below zero, short-term borrowing costs more. | 0.90 percentage points, monthly average | Not inverted | No. Research convention: Inversion (below 0) | Treasury via FREDRefresh pending | |
| Chicago Fed activity index (CFNAI-MA3)One number that sums up 85 monthly measures of production, jobs, spending, housing and sales, averaged over three months. Zero is growth at its usual pace; below zero, slower. | 0.01 index, standard deviations from trend | Within range | No. Publisher’s line: Recession line -0.70 | Chicago Fed via FREDCurrent | |
| Financial conditions (NFCI)One weekly number that sums up 105 measures of risk, credit and borrowing across financial markets and banks. Zero is the historical average; above zero is tighter than average. | -0.548 index, standard deviations from average | Looser than average | Looser than its reference; not a trigger. Publisher’s reference: 0 (the average) | Chicago Fed via FREDRefresh pending | |
| PCE inflation vs. the 2% goalHow much the prices of the goods and services households buy changed from a year earlier, by the measure the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal names. | 3.4% change from a year earlier | 1.4 points above the 2% goal | No line: shown as a distance from a reference | BEA via FREDCurrent | |
| Unemployment vs. CBO’s noncyclical rateThe share of the labor force out of work and looking for a job, beside the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of the rate with no boom or slump in demand. | 4.2% of the labor force | 0.19 points below CBO’s estimate (4.39%) | No line: shown as a distance from a reference | BLS and CBO via FRED: UNRATE, NROUCurrent | |
| NY Fed recession probability modelA New York Fed model’s estimate of the chance of a recession 12 months later, worked out from the gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates. | 13.9% model estimate | spread (estimate for ) | The New York Fed’s model estimate, made from the Aug. 2026 spread. No status: the publisher sets no threshold. | No line | New York FedHand-updated; schedule unconfirmed |