The Rational ModerateSearch

PCE inflation compared with the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent goal

How much the prices of the goods and services households buy changed from a year earlier, by the measure the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal names.

Percent change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index from the same month a year earlier, the measure the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2 percent goal names. Monthly.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED, Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index (FRED series PCEPI), change from a year earlier.

3.4%

· change from a year earlier

1.4 points above the 2% goal

Current, as of

PCE inflation vs. the 2% goal over time

2%2.5%3%3.5%4%Sept. 2025Nov. 2025Jan. 2026March 2026May 2026July 20262%

  • 2% goal
  • NBER recessions
2%4%6%8%202220232024202520262%

  • 2% goal
  • NBER recessions
0%2%4%6%8%201820202022202420262%

  • 2% goal
  • NBER recessions
-5%0%5%10%19601980200020202%

  • 2% goal
  • NBER recessions

Data as of Oct. 5, 2026; past values are revised.

Shaded: NBER recessions (peak month excluded, trough month included). NBER dates recessions after the fact, up to 21 months later (NBER’s longest announcement lag so far), so the most recent months cannot be shaded until it does. NBER has not announced a business cycle peak since February 2020 (as of , when the site last checked NBER’s announcements).

Data table

The table lists the 800 dates the charts draw; the CSV has all 812 rows.

PCE inflation vs. the 2% goal: the values the charts draw, newest first
MonthPCE price index, 2017 = 100Change from a year earlier, %
2026-08-01131.5793.42
2026-07-01131.1723.36
2026-06-01131.1063.45
2026-05-01131.2413.82
2026-04-01130.6723.57
2026-03-01130.1053.37
2026-02-01129.2932.8
2026-01-01128.8452.73
2025-12-01128.4552.78
2025-11-01128.0452.71
2025-10-01127.792.66
2025-09-01127.6012.78
2025-08-01127.2292.69
2025-07-01126.9062.59
2025-06-01126.732.61
2025-05-01126.4082.46
2025-04-01126.1632.33
2025-03-01125.8692.26
2025-02-01125.772.57
2025-01-01125.4232.63
2024-12-01124.9842.65
2024-11-01124.6662.49
2024-10-01124.4822.41
2024-09-01124.1462.26
2024-08-01123.8912.44
2024-07-01123.7012.6
2024-06-01123.5042.57
2024-05-01123.3692.7
2024-04-01123.2892.84
2024-03-01123.0932.95
2024-02-01122.6132.81
2024-01-01122.2062.75
2023-12-01121.762.86
2023-11-01121.6362.89
2023-10-01121.5573.1
2023-09-01121.4033.49
2023-08-01120.9443.44
2023-07-01120.5713.36
2023-06-01120.413.35
2023-05-01120.1294.1
2023-04-01119.8864.53
2023-03-01119.5644.49
2023-02-01119.2655.2
2023-01-01118.9385.56
2022-12-01118.3725.61
2022-11-01118.2216.09
2022-10-01117.9026.51
2022-09-01117.3076.69
2022-08-01116.9246.68
2022-07-01116.656.86
2022-06-01116.5127.22
2022-05-01115.4016.78
2022-04-01114.6886.63
2022-03-01114.4256.92
2022-02-01113.376.51
2022-01-01112.6786.23
2021-12-01112.0886.04
2021-11-01111.4355.87
2021-10-01110.75.28
2021-09-01109.9484.66
2021-08-01109.5994.51
2021-07-01109.1624.38
2021-06-01108.6684.22
2021-05-01108.0693.97
2021-04-01107.5533.58
2021-03-01107.0192.64
2021-02-01106.4411.79
2021-01-01106.0651.51
2020-12-01105.6991.33
2020-11-01105.2581.19
2020-10-01105.1511.19
2020-09-01105.0571.28
2020-08-01104.871.16
2020-07-01104.5780.92
2020-06-01104.270.76
2020-05-01103.9420.49
2020-04-01103.8380.46
2020-03-01104.2711.17
2020-02-01104.5731.69
2020-01-01104.491.79
2019-12-01104.3071.56
2019-11-01104.0241.36
2019-10-01103.9171.29
2019-09-01103.7331.28
2019-08-01103.671.43
2019-07-01103.6221.45
2019-06-01103.4841.43
2019-05-01103.4351.47
2019-04-01103.361.57
2019-03-01103.0691.52
2019-02-01102.8361.4
2019-01-01102.6481.43
2018-12-01102.7011.86
2018-11-01102.631.94
2018-10-01102.5952.05
2018-09-01102.4182.01
2018-08-01102.2082.18
2018-07-01102.1372.34
2018-06-01102.0292.27
2018-05-01101.9412.27
2018-04-01101.7662.05
2018-03-01101.5242.0
2018-02-01101.4161.84
2018-01-01101.1991.76
2017-12-01100.8211.77
2017-11-01100.6751.79
2017-10-01100.5311.68
2017-09-01100.41.76
2017-08-01100.0271.57
2017-07-0199.8031.49
2017-06-0199.7661.47
2017-05-0199.6821.56
2017-04-0199.7251.77
2017-03-0199.5351.91
2017-02-0199.5862.2
2017-01-0199.4512.01
2016-12-0199.0711.66
2016-11-0198.9011.4
2016-10-0198.8681.43
2016-09-0198.6661.22
2016-08-0198.4790.89
2016-07-0198.3420.76
2016-06-0198.3250.83
2016-05-0198.1530.85
2016-04-0197.9930.93
2016-03-0197.6730.69
2016-02-0197.4450.64
2016-01-0197.4960.87
2015-12-0197.4560.35
2015-11-0197.5380.25
2015-10-0197.4770.1
2015-09-0197.4770.07
2015-08-0197.6120.24
2015-07-0197.6050.22
2015-06-0197.5160.27
2015-05-0197.3270.19
2015-04-0197.0940.11
2015-03-0197.0080.2
2015-02-0196.8250.17
2015-01-0196.6540.04
2014-12-0197.120.73
2014-11-0197.2911.09
2014-10-0197.3841.33
2014-09-0197.4131.5
2014-08-0197.3791.51
2014-07-0197.3911.67
2014-06-0197.2531.65
2014-05-0197.1471.77
2014-04-0196.9871.67
2014-03-0196.8151.39
2014-02-0196.661.09
2014-01-0196.6141.41
2013-12-0196.4141.39
2013-11-0196.2461.2
2013-10-0196.1030.98
2013-09-0195.9761.14
2013-08-0195.9341.4
2013-07-0195.7921.6
2013-06-0195.6731.51
2013-05-0195.4611.23
2013-04-0195.3911.04
2013-03-0195.4881.28
2013-02-0195.6141.6
2013-01-0195.2751.47
2012-12-0195.0941.62
2012-11-0195.1091.7
2012-10-0195.1741.98
2012-09-0194.8931.68
2012-08-0194.6051.51
2012-07-0194.2881.41
2012-06-0194.2541.55
2012-05-0194.3021.58
2012-04-0194.4082.0
2012-03-0194.2842.3
2012-02-0194.1042.51
2012-01-0193.8942.57
2011-12-0193.5742.53
2011-11-0193.522.7
2011-10-0193.3292.69
2011-09-0193.3273.02
2011-08-0193.1962.98
2011-07-0192.9772.88
2011-06-0192.8192.79
2011-05-0192.8382.77
2011-04-0192.5572.49
2011-03-0192.1662.11
2011-02-0191.7971.85
2011-01-0191.5421.56
2010-12-0191.2681.48
2010-11-0191.0621.31
2010-10-0190.8811.36
2010-09-0190.5921.42
2010-08-0190.5021.48
2010-07-0190.3781.64
2010-06-0190.3011.56
2010-05-0190.3392.21
2010-04-0190.312.28
2010-03-0190.2612.37
2010-02-0190.1342.12
2010-01-0190.1362.3
2009-12-0189.9392.09
2009-11-0189.8871.46
2009-10-0189.6630.01
2009-09-0189.324-1.02
2009-08-0189.18-1.1
2009-07-0188.922-1.47
2009-06-0188.912-1.02
2009-05-0188.387-0.89
2009-04-0188.295-0.57
2009-03-0188.169-0.53
2009-02-0188.266-0.13
2009-01-0188.108-0.11
2008-12-0188.0980.13
2008-11-0188.5930.93
2008-10-0189.6512.67
2008-09-0190.2473.67
2008-08-0190.1723.98
2008-07-0190.2454.14
2008-06-0189.8273.81
2008-05-0189.183.28
2008-04-0188.7993.14
2008-03-0188.6353.19
2008-02-0188.3823.27
2008-01-0188.2063.39
2007-12-0187.9843.47
2007-11-0187.7813.6
2007-10-0187.3183.09
2007-09-0187.0542.53
2007-08-0186.721.87
2007-07-0186.6612.12
2007-06-0186.5292.32
2007-05-0186.3462.35
2007-04-0186.0962.33
2007-03-0185.8942.56
2007-02-0185.5812.39
2007-01-0185.3162.13
2006-12-0185.0322.29
2006-11-0184.7311.92
2006-10-0184.7021.68
2006-09-0184.9022.08
2006-08-0185.1253.34
2006-07-0184.8583.43
2006-06-0184.5693.51
2006-05-0184.3613.32
2006-04-0184.1353.1
2006-03-0183.7462.91
2006-02-0183.5843.02
2006-01-0183.5343.25
2005-12-0183.1312.88
2005-11-0183.1312.94
2005-10-0183.3053.55
2005-09-0183.1723.83
2005-08-0182.3773.04
2005-07-0182.0462.68
2005-06-0181.72.34
2005-05-0181.6492.57
2005-04-0181.6032.84
2005-03-0181.3752.75
2005-02-0181.1322.6
2005-01-0180.9072.53
2004-12-0180.8012.79
2004-11-0180.7582.97
2004-10-0180.4482.7
2004-09-0180.1042.27
2004-08-0179.9462.39
2004-07-0179.9052.68
2004-06-0179.8312.89
2004-05-0179.6042.71
2004-04-0179.3462.26
2004-03-0179.1991.9
2004-02-0179.0772.0
2004-01-0178.9092.21
2003-12-0178.6052.12
2003-11-0178.4322.0
2003-10-0178.3331.97
2003-09-0178.3232.14
2003-08-0178.0792.01
2003-07-0177.8161.86
2003-06-0177.5881.79
2003-05-0177.5041.8
2003-04-0177.5931.99
2003-03-0177.7252.59
2003-02-0177.5262.6
2003-01-0177.2012.35
2002-12-0176.9712.13
2002-11-0176.8971.93
2002-10-0176.8211.76
2002-09-0176.6811.93
2002-08-0176.5431.4
2002-07-0176.3931.19
2002-06-0176.2250.94
2002-05-0176.130.99
2002-04-0176.081.19
2002-03-0175.7630.94
2002-02-0175.5580.68
2002-01-0175.4310.67
2001-12-0175.3631.06
2001-11-0175.4411.32
2001-10-0175.4921.53
2001-09-0175.2271.31
2001-08-0175.4842.1
2001-07-0175.4932.1
2001-06-0175.5182.39
2001-05-0175.3852.56
2001-04-0175.1872.37
2001-03-0175.0552.11
2001-02-0175.0482.54
2001-01-0174.9322.7
2000-12-0174.5712.48
2000-11-0174.4572.57
2000-10-0174.3532.51
2000-09-0174.2522.55
2000-08-0173.9342.48
2000-07-0173.9392.67
2000-06-0173.7542.68
2000-05-0173.5052.37
2000-04-0173.4442.35
2000-03-0173.5052.93
2000-02-0173.1912.57
2000-01-0172.9612.19
1999-12-0172.7632.05
1999-11-0172.5941.92
1999-10-0172.5291.83
1999-09-0172.4071.89
1999-08-0172.1481.46
1999-07-0172.0171.42
1999-06-0171.8261.4
1999-05-0171.8041.28
1999-04-0171.7571.35
1999-03-0171.4120.99
1999-02-0171.3580.93
1999-01-0171.3980.94
1998-12-0171.2980.84
1998-11-0171.2260.72
1998-10-0171.2230.72
1998-09-0171.0670.63
1998-08-0171.1080.93
1998-07-0171.010.88
1998-06-0170.8350.69
1998-05-0170.8950.9
1998-04-0170.7980.72
1998-03-0170.710.69
1998-02-0170.6990.78
1998-01-0170.7361.04
1997-12-0170.7011.13
1997-11-0170.7161.26
1997-10-0170.7121.44
1997-09-0170.621.61
1997-08-0170.451.66
1997-07-0170.3941.67
1997-06-0170.3521.83
1997-05-0170.2621.69
1997-04-0170.2941.92
1997-03-0170.2252.12
1997-02-0170.1512.32
1997-01-0170.0052.27
1996-12-0169.9142.36
1996-11-0169.8332.44
1996-10-0169.7092.26
1996-09-0169.4992.21
1996-08-0169.3031.99
1996-07-0169.2372.12
1996-06-0169.0912.03
1996-05-0169.0922.13
1996-04-0168.9732.11
1996-03-0168.7672.07
1996-02-0168.561.95
1996-01-0168.4521.97
1995-12-0168.31.95
1995-11-0168.1691.82
1995-10-0168.1712.02
1995-09-0167.9951.93
1995-08-0167.9481.97
1995-07-0167.8021.99
1995-06-0167.7172.18
1995-05-0167.6512.33
1995-04-0167.5472.32
1995-03-0167.372.17
1995-02-0167.2462.27
1995-01-0167.1272.32
1994-12-0166.9912.15
1994-11-0166.9482.11
1994-10-0166.8212.11
1994-09-0166.7082.25
1994-08-0166.6342.25
1994-07-0166.4812.19
1994-06-0166.2722.03
1994-05-0166.1111.81
1994-04-0166.0151.98
1994-03-0165.9372.13
1994-02-0165.7562.06
1994-01-0165.6041.98
1993-12-0165.5822.19
1993-11-0165.5672.35
1993-10-0165.4432.35
1993-09-0165.2382.39
1993-08-0165.172.45
1993-07-0165.0592.42
1993-06-0164.9552.59
1993-05-0164.9332.74
1993-04-0164.7332.56
1993-03-0164.5612.56
1993-02-0164.4292.6
1993-01-0164.3322.7
1992-12-0164.1762.59
1992-11-0164.0642.67
1992-10-0163.9382.7
1992-09-0163.7132.52
1992-08-0163.6092.71
1992-07-0163.5242.81
1992-06-0163.3152.63
1992-05-0163.2032.63
1992-04-0163.1192.91
1992-03-0162.9492.82
1992-02-0162.7972.6
1992-01-0162.6382.39
1991-12-0162.5532.64
1991-11-0162.3972.48
1991-10-0162.262.38
1991-09-0162.1442.78
1991-08-0161.9313.05
1991-07-0161.7873.5
1991-06-0161.693.59
1991-05-0161.5863.87
1991-04-0161.3323.68
1991-03-0161.2213.71
1991-02-0161.2084.08
1991-01-0161.1774.48
1990-12-0160.9454.87
1990-11-0160.8885.08
1990-10-0160.8115.17
1990-09-0160.4654.98
1990-08-0160.0964.58
1990-07-0159.6993.9
1990-06-0159.5523.89
1990-05-0159.293.66
1990-04-0159.1573.8
1990-03-0159.0334.28
1990-02-0158.8114.27
1990-01-0158.5534.16
1989-12-0158.1133.91
1989-11-0157.9453.93
1989-10-0157.8193.94
1989-09-0157.5943.88
1989-08-0157.4664.15
1989-07-0157.4594.45
1989-06-0157.3224.71
1989-05-0157.1974.92
1989-04-0156.9894.84
1989-03-0156.6124.66
1989-02-0156.4024.63
1989-01-0156.2154.43
1988-12-0155.9284.3
1988-11-0155.7544.17
1988-10-0155.6254.13
1988-09-0155.4444.12
1988-08-0155.1753.96
1988-07-0155.0124.07
1988-06-0154.7463.8
1988-05-0154.5143.75
1988-04-0154.3563.72
1988-03-0154.0933.6
1988-02-0153.9083.52
1988-01-0153.8283.73
1987-12-0153.623.81
1987-11-0153.5213.76
1987-10-0153.423.75
1987-09-0153.2513.61
1987-08-0153.0723.6
1987-07-0152.8633.32
1987-06-0152.7413.11
1987-05-0152.5423.1
1987-04-0152.4093.03
1987-03-0152.2142.44
1987-02-0152.0761.94
1987-01-0151.8941.59
1986-12-0151.6511.58
1986-11-0151.581.78
1986-10-0151.4881.89
1986-09-0151.3961.88
1986-08-0151.2281.72
1986-07-0151.1641.92
1986-06-0151.1512.15
1986-05-0150.9612.05
1986-04-0150.8682.1
1986-03-0150.9722.46
1986-02-0151.0843.09
1986-01-0151.0843.56
1985-12-0150.853.6
1985-11-0150.683.55
1985-10-0150.5333.39
1985-09-0150.4493.47
1985-08-0150.3643.43
1985-07-0150.1983.41
1985-06-0150.0753.52
1985-05-0149.9393.43
1985-04-0149.8213.31
1985-03-0149.7493.56
1985-02-0149.5553.49
1985-01-0149.3263.7
1984-12-0149.0813.64
1984-11-0148.9433.4
1984-10-0148.8743.4
1984-09-0148.7593.34
1984-08-0148.6933.56
1984-07-0148.5443.68
1984-06-0148.3713.9
1984-05-0148.2854.1
1984-04-0148.2244.26
1984-03-0148.0414.34
1984-02-0147.8844.13
1984-01-0147.5643.61
1983-12-0147.3583.64
1983-11-0147.3323.74
1983-10-0147.2653.91
1983-09-0147.1854.32
1983-08-0147.024.24
1983-07-0146.824.12
1983-06-0146.5574.15
1983-05-0146.3844.51
1983-04-0146.2534.83
1983-03-0146.0434.41
1983-02-0145.9844.54
1983-01-0145.9064.68
1982-12-0145.6934.81
1982-11-0145.6244.98
1982-10-0145.4875.23
1982-09-0145.2335.11
1982-08-0145.1085.46
1982-07-0144.9695.79
1982-06-0144.7045.8
1982-05-0144.3825.46
1982-04-0144.125.31
1982-03-0144.0985.71
1982-02-0143.9856.18
1982-01-0143.8536.93
1981-12-0143.5947.32
1981-11-0143.467.68
1981-10-0143.2287.98
1981-09-0143.0338.35
1981-08-0142.7748.7
1981-07-0142.5088.92
1981-06-0142.2539.11
1981-05-0142.0859.36
1981-04-0141.8979.72
1981-03-0141.7159.81
1981-02-0141.42610.39
1981-01-0141.01110.47
1980-12-0140.62110.57
1980-11-0140.35910.78
1980-10-0140.03310.64
1980-09-0139.71510.66
1980-08-0139.35110.61
1980-07-0139.02610.54
1980-06-0138.72510.52
1980-05-0138.48210.74
1980-04-0138.18511.02
1980-03-0137.98711.6
1980-02-0137.52611.1
1980-01-0137.12410.5
1979-12-0136.73910.18
1979-11-0136.4339.77
1979-10-0136.1829.63
1979-09-0135.8899.61
1979-08-0135.5759.27
1979-07-0135.3058.99
1979-06-0135.0388.76
1979-05-0134.7518.57
1979-04-0134.3958.23
1979-03-0134.047.92
1979-02-0133.7767.78
1979-01-0133.5977.7
1978-12-0133.3457.53
1978-11-0133.197.55
1978-10-0133.0037.55
1978-09-0132.7427.2
1978-08-0132.5577.0
1978-07-0132.3936.95
1978-06-0132.2176.92
1978-05-0132.0086.83
1978-04-0131.7816.6
1978-03-0131.5426.42
1978-02-0131.3396.26
1978-01-0131.1946.6
1977-12-0131.0116.59
1977-11-0130.8616.67
1977-10-0130.6856.54
1977-09-0130.5436.6
1977-08-0130.4286.8
1977-07-0130.2876.89
1977-06-0130.1316.88
1977-05-0129.9636.75
1977-04-0129.8126.72
1977-03-0129.646.34
1977-02-0129.4925.97
1977-01-0129.2635.28
1976-12-0129.0945.07
1976-11-0128.9325.06
1976-10-0128.8015.26
1976-09-0128.6515.32
1976-08-0128.4915.25
1976-07-0128.3355.13
1976-06-0128.1925.49
1976-05-0128.0695.69
1976-04-0127.9365.61
1976-03-0127.8735.73
1976-02-0127.8315.93
1976-01-0127.7956.36
1975-12-0127.696.62
1975-11-0127.5386.87
1975-10-0127.3626.99
1975-09-0127.2047.13
1975-08-0127.077.71
1975-07-0126.9538.37
1975-06-0126.7248.24
1975-05-0126.5588.48
1975-04-0126.4529.11
1975-03-0126.3639.51
1975-02-0126.27410.41
1975-01-0126.13211.09
1974-12-0125.97111.46
1974-11-0125.76711.5
1974-10-0125.57511.57
1974-09-0125.39311.41
1974-08-0125.13210.7
1974-07-0124.87210.82
1974-06-0124.6910.41
1974-05-0124.48210.1
1974-04-0124.2439.56
1974-03-0124.0739.6
1974-02-0123.7979.12
1974-01-0123.5238.43
1973-12-0123.37.72
1973-11-0123.117.18
1973-10-0122.9226.63
1973-09-0122.7936.15
1973-08-0122.7036.2
1973-07-0122.4445.3
1973-06-0122.3635.29
1973-05-0122.2364.85
1973-04-0122.1274.57
1973-03-0121.9643.96
1973-02-0121.8093.37
1973-01-0121.6953.24
1972-12-0121.633.35
1972-11-0121.5613.42
1972-10-0121.4973.33
1972-09-0121.4733.37
1972-08-0121.3773.07
1972-07-0121.3153.07
1972-06-0121.2393.01
1972-05-0121.2073.31
1972-04-0121.163.51
1972-03-0121.1283.76
1972-02-0121.0983.95
1972-01-0121.0153.84
1971-12-0120.9293.64
1971-11-0120.8473.69
1971-10-0120.8043.88
1971-09-0120.7724.24
1971-08-0120.7414.55
1971-07-0120.6814.52
1971-06-0120.6194.59
1971-05-0120.5284.4
1971-04-0120.4434.3
1971-03-0120.3634.41
1971-02-0120.2964.33
1971-01-0120.2374.44
1970-12-0120.1944.59
1970-11-0120.1054.6
1970-10-0120.0264.65
1970-09-0119.9274.48
1970-08-0119.8384.45
1970-07-0119.7864.46
1970-06-0119.7144.54
1970-05-0119.6634.77
1970-04-0119.6014.86
1970-03-0119.5024.79
1970-02-0119.4545.03
1970-01-0119.3774.88
1969-12-0119.3084.91
1969-11-0119.224.65
1969-10-0119.1374.55
1969-09-0119.0724.65
1969-08-0118.9934.58
1969-07-0118.9414.72
1969-06-0118.8584.58
1969-05-0118.7674.41
1969-04-0118.6924.38
1969-03-0118.614.25
1969-02-0118.5234.1
1969-01-0118.4764.25
1968-12-0118.4044.33
1968-11-0118.3664.28
1968-10-0118.3044.27
1968-09-0118.2244.11
1968-08-0118.1614.06
1968-07-0118.0873.96
1968-06-0118.0324.0
1968-05-0117.9743.99
1968-04-0117.9083.81
1968-03-0117.8523.66
1968-02-0117.7943.38
1968-01-0117.7223.08
1967-12-0117.642.61
1967-11-0117.6122.66
1967-10-0117.5542.47
1967-09-0117.5052.45
1967-08-0117.4522.47
1967-07-0117.3982.54
1967-06-0117.3392.39
1967-05-0117.2842.32
1967-04-0117.2512.25
1967-03-0117.2222.43
1967-02-0117.2132.63
1967-01-0117.1932.93
1966-12-0117.1923.05
1966-11-0117.1563.21
1966-10-0117.1313.23
1966-09-0117.0862.99
1966-08-0117.0322.71
1966-07-0116.9672.35
1966-06-0116.9342.22
1966-05-0116.8922.26
1966-04-0116.8712.37
1966-03-0116.8132.18
1966-02-0116.7722.06
1966-01-0116.7031.68
1965-12-0116.6831.67
1965-11-0116.6231.45
1965-10-0116.5951.42
1965-09-0116.591.46
1965-08-0116.5821.56
1965-07-0116.5781.61
1965-06-0116.5661.67
1965-05-0116.5181.52
1965-04-0116.4811.3
1965-03-0116.4551.22
1965-02-0116.4341.15
1965-01-0116.4271.25
1964-12-0116.4091.35
1964-11-0116.3851.35
1964-10-0116.3621.36
1964-09-0116.3521.49
1964-08-0116.3271.32
1964-07-0116.3151.38
1964-06-0116.2941.45
1964-05-0116.2711.53
1964-04-0116.2691.68
1964-03-0116.2571.6
1964-02-0116.2471.45
1964-01-0116.2241.42
1963-12-0116.191.45
1963-11-0116.1661.27
1963-10-0116.1431.19
1963-09-0116.1120.9
1963-08-0116.1151.41
1963-07-0116.0931.42
1963-06-0116.0611.16
1963-05-0116.0261.0
1963-04-0116.00.9
1963-03-0116.0011.02
1963-02-0116.0141.24
1963-01-0115.9971.4
1962-12-0115.9581.35
1962-11-0115.9641.41
1962-10-0115.9531.35
1962-09-0115.9691.44
1962-08-0115.8911.06
1962-07-0115.8681.0
1962-06-0115.8771.28
1962-05-0115.8671.26
1962-04-0115.8571.25
1962-03-0115.8391.08
1962-02-0115.8180.89
1962-01-0115.7760.71
1961-12-0115.7460.54
1961-11-0115.7420.53
1961-10-0115.7410.87
1961-09-0115.7420.99
1961-08-0115.7240.93
1961-07-0115.7111.02
1961-06-0115.6770.98
1961-05-0115.670.98
1961-04-0115.6611.03
1961-03-0115.671.45
1961-02-0115.6791.57
1961-01-0115.6651.58
1960-12-0115.6621.5
1960-11-0115.6591.6
1960-10-0115.6061.32
1960-09-0115.5881.45
1960-08-0115.5791.66
1960-07-0115.5531.63
1960-06-0115.5251.66
1960-05-0115.5181.91
1960-04-0115.5021.86
1960-03-0115.4461.69
1960-02-0115.4371.7
1960-01-0115.4211.69

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED: Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index (FRED series PCEPI), change from a year earlier. PCEPI · retrieved Oct. 5, 2026 · 812 rows · as of August 2026 · monthly. Recession shading: NBER, via FRED series USREC, retrieved Oct. 5, 2026, as of September 2026. NBER CSV: recession months. Download CSV

The official definition

A goal, not a trigger: the gap is a distance, not a warning.

“The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s statutory maximum employment and price stability mandates.”

Federal Open Market Committee, Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, reaffirmed effective January 27, 2026, p. 1

Caveats

  • The goal names the annual change, so the site compares the change from a year earlier, not a monthly rate at an annual pace.
  • PCE prices are revised. BEA’s 2026 annual update is scheduled to begin September 30, 2026.