The Rational Moderate: tracker updatesThe latest value of each series on the tracker, with its change from the prior period and from a year earlier, and a note when a signal changes status.https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/en-usFederal debt, to the penny: $40.24T, Oct. 2, 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/federal-debt/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/federal-debt/#2026-10-02Down $18.2B since Oct. 1. $37.88T a year earlier (+6.2%). Source: Treasury Fiscal Data.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT10-year Treasury yield: 5.28%, Oct. 2, 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/treasury-10y/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/treasury-10y/#2026-10-02Up 0.04 points since Oct. 1. 4.10% a year earlier, up 1.18 points. Source: Federal Reserve H.15 via FRED.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT30-year mortgage rate: 7.28%, Oct. 2026, month to datehttps://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/mortgage-rate/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/mortgage-rate/#2026-10-01Last full month, Sept. 2026: 6.86%, up 0.19 points from August. 6.35% in Sept. 2025, up 0.51 points. Source: Freddie Mac via FRED.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTRegular gas, U.S. average: $4.47, week of Sept. 28, 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/gas-price/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/gas-price/#2026-09-28Down $0.01 on the week. $3.12 a year earlier (+43.2%). Source: EIA via FRED.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTNew jobless claims: 197K, week ending Sept. 26, 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/jobless-claims/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/jobless-claims/#2026-09-26Down 1,000 on the week. 225K a year earlier (-12.4%). Source: DOL via FRED.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTJobs added: +29K, Sept. 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/jobs-added/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/jobs-added/#2026-09-01Aug. 2026: +133K. Past 12 months: +496K. Source: BLS via FRED.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTUnemployment rate: 4.2%, Sept. 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/unemployment/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/unemployment/#2026-09-01Up 0.1 points from August. 4.4% a year earlier, down 0.2 points. Source: BLS via FRED.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTUnderemployment (U-6): 7.6%, Sept. 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/u6/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/u6/#2026-09-01Down 0.1 points from August. 8.1% a year earlier, down 0.5 points. Source: BLS via FRED.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTDeficit, fiscal year to date: $1.97T, Aug. 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/deficit/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/deficit/#2026-08-31$1.97T a year earlier (-0.4%). August alone $166.8B. Source: Monthly Treasury Statement.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTNet interest, fiscal year to date: $1.02T, Aug. 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/net-interest/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/net-interest/#2026-08-31$933.5B a year earlier (+8.9%). August alone $85.6B. Source: Monthly Treasury Statement.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTTariff revenue, fiscal year to date: $167.3B, Aug. 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/tariff-revenue/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/tariff-revenue/#2026-08-31$165.2B a year earlier (+1.3%). Collected $292.5B, refunded $125.2B. Source: Monthly Treasury Statement.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTInflation, all items: 3.35%, Aug. 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/inflation/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/inflation/#2026-08-01Up 0.05 points from July. 2.94% a year earlier, up 0.41 points. Core 2.45%, food at home 2.13%. Source: BLS CPI via FRED.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTRent and housing costs (CPI shelter): 3.03%, Aug. 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/shelter/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/shelter/#2026-08-01Down 0.13 points from July. 3.64% a year earlier, down 0.61 points. Source: BLS CPI via FRED.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTEggs, a dozen: $2.27, Aug. 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/eggs/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/eggs/#2026-08-01Up $0.08 from July. $3.59 a year earlier (-36.7%). Source: BLS via FRED.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTMilk, a gallon: $4.23, Aug. 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/milk/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/milk/#2026-08-01Down $0.08 from July. $4.17 a year earlier (+1.4%). Source: BLS via FRED.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTWhite bread, a pound: $1.82, Aug. 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/bread/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/bread/#2026-08-01Unchanged from July. $1.84 a year earlier (-1.0%). Source: BLS via FRED.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTReal hourly pay, past year: -0.23%, Aug. 2026https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/real-earnings/https://therationalmoderate.com/tracker/real-earnings/#2026-08-01Down 0.14 points from July. +1.01% a year earlier, down 1.24 points. Pay +3.11%, prices +3.35%. Source: BLS via FRED.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT