The Rational ModerateSearch

Unemployment rate compared with CBO’s noncyclical rate

The share of the labor force out of work and looking for a job, beside the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of the rate with no boom or slump in demand.

The unemployment rate (BLS) beside the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of the noncyclical rate of unemployment, the rate from all sources except swings in demand. Monthly; CBO’s estimate is quarterly.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment rate); Congressional Budget Office (noncyclical rate of unemployment), via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED, Unemployment Rate (FRED series UNRATE) and Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment (FRED series NROU). Series: UNRATE, NROU.

4.2%

· of the labor force

0.19 points below CBO’s estimate (4.39%)

Current, as of

Unemployment vs. CBO’s noncyclical rate over time

No figure for October 2025: the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not conduct its household survey that month because of the federal government shutdown (Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, 2025), and there is no estimate for that month. Source: BLS, 2025 federal government shutdown impact on the Current Population Survey. The line connects the readings on either side, and the data table marks the gap “not published.”

4%4.1%4.2%4.3%4.4%4.5%Sept. 2025Nov. 2025Jan. 2026March 2026May 2026July 2026Sept. 2026

  • NBER recessions
3%3.5%4%4.5%20222023202420252026

  • NBER recessions
0%5%10%15%20182020202220242026

  • NBER recessions
0%5%10%15%1960198020002020

  • NBER recessions

Long ranges draw the high and low of each stretch of observations; the CSV has every one. Data as of Oct. 5, 2026; past values are revised.

Shaded: NBER recessions (peak month excluded, trough month included). NBER dates recessions after the fact, up to 21 months later (NBER’s longest announcement lag so far), so the most recent months cannot be shaded until it does. NBER has not announced a business cycle peak since February 2020 (as of , when the site last checked NBER’s announcements).

Data table

The table lists the 857 dates the charts draw; the CSV has all 944 rows.

Unemployment vs. CBO’s noncyclical rate: the values the charts draw, newest first
MonthUnemployment rate, %CBO noncyclical rate, %Gap, points
2026-09-014.24.392371965120071-0.19
2026-08-014.14.392371965120071-0.29
2026-07-014.14.392371965120071-0.29
2026-06-014.24.39593247642493-0.2
2026-05-014.34.39593247642493-0.1
2026-04-014.34.39593247642493-0.1
2026-03-014.34.399090564203688-0.1
2026-02-014.44.3990905642036880.0
2026-01-014.34.399090564203688-0.1
2025-12-014.44.401841212641070.0
2025-11-014.54.401841212641070.1
2025-10-01not publishednot publishednot published
2025-09-014.44.404199708268840.0
2025-08-014.34.40419970826884-0.1
2025-07-014.34.40419970826884-0.1
2025-06-014.14.40690622022857-0.31
2025-05-014.34.40690622022857-0.11
2025-04-014.24.40690622022857-0.21
2025-03-014.24.40904868088454-0.21
2025-02-014.24.40904868088454-0.21
2025-01-014.04.40904868088454-0.41
2024-12-014.14.413737266101202-0.31
2024-11-014.24.413737266101202-0.21
2024-10-014.14.413737266101202-0.31
2024-09-014.14.418184956226237-0.32
2024-08-014.24.418184956226237-0.22
2024-07-014.24.418184956226237-0.22
2024-06-014.14.42215707526542-0.32
2024-05-013.94.42215707526542-0.52
2024-04-013.94.42215707526542-0.52
2024-03-013.94.42567965718569-0.53
2024-02-013.94.42567965718569-0.53
2024-01-013.74.42567965718569-0.73
2023-12-013.84.42882424008579-0.63
2023-11-013.74.42882424008579-0.73
2023-10-013.94.42882424008579-0.53
2023-09-013.74.4313678808796295-0.73
2023-08-013.74.4313678808796295-0.73
2023-07-013.54.4313678808796295-0.93
2023-06-013.64.43350999614073-0.83
2023-05-013.64.43350999614073-0.83
2023-04-013.44.43350999614073-1.03
2023-03-013.54.43529644125222-0.94
2023-02-013.64.43529644125222-0.84
2023-01-013.54.43529644125222-0.94
2022-12-013.54.43723236707892-0.94
2022-11-013.64.43723236707892-0.84
2022-10-013.64.43723236707892-0.84
2022-09-013.54.4389317490436095-0.94
2022-08-013.64.4389317490436095-0.84
2022-07-013.54.4389317490436095-0.94
2022-06-013.64.44046672936978-0.84
2022-05-013.64.44046672936978-0.84
2022-04-013.74.44046672936978-0.74
2022-03-013.74.441916779223741-0.74
2022-02-013.94.441916779223741-0.54
2022-01-014.04.441916779223741-0.44
2021-12-013.94.44441769129896-0.54
2021-11-014.14.44441769129896-0.34
2021-10-014.54.444417691298960.06
2021-09-014.74.4470104170573490.25
2021-08-015.14.4470104170573490.65
2021-07-015.44.4470104170573490.95
2021-06-015.94.449789766296281.45
2021-05-015.84.449789766296281.35
2021-04-016.14.449789766296281.65
2021-03-016.14.4528529898698791.65
2021-02-016.24.4528529898698791.75
2021-01-016.44.4528529898698791.95
2020-12-016.74.45207326918722.25
2020-11-016.74.45207326918722.25
2020-10-016.94.45207326918722.45
2020-09-017.84.4552731384737513.34
2020-08-018.44.4552731384737513.94
2020-07-0110.24.4552731384737515.74
2020-06-0111.04.459047867661026.54
2020-05-0113.24.459047867661028.74
2020-04-0114.84.4590478676610210.34
2020-03-014.44.463488835113431-0.06
2020-02-013.54.463488835113431-0.96
2020-01-013.64.463488835113431-0.86
2019-12-013.64.46868192017881-0.87
2019-11-013.64.46868192017881-0.87
2019-10-013.64.46868192017881-0.87
2019-09-013.54.47470594573225-0.97
2019-08-013.64.47470594573225-0.87
2019-07-013.74.47470594573225-0.77
2019-06-013.64.481631200462391-0.88
2019-05-013.64.481631200462391-0.88
2019-04-013.74.481631200462391-0.78
2019-03-013.84.4895180696244-0.69
2019-02-013.84.4895180696244-0.69
2019-01-014.04.4895180696244-0.49
2018-12-013.94.49841580136913-0.6
2018-11-013.84.49841580136913-0.7
2018-10-013.84.49841580136913-0.7
2018-09-013.74.50836143357856-0.81
2018-08-013.84.50836143357856-0.71
2018-07-013.84.50836143357856-0.71
2018-06-014.04.51937890343318-0.52
2018-05-013.84.51937890343318-0.72
2018-04-014.04.51937890343318-0.52
2018-03-014.04.53147835875611-0.53
2018-02-014.14.53147835875611-0.43
2018-01-014.04.53147835875611-0.53
2017-12-014.14.54465568658274-0.44
2017-11-014.24.54465568658274-0.34
2017-10-014.24.54465568658274-0.34
2017-09-014.34.55889227046308-0.26
2017-08-014.44.55889227046308-0.16
2017-07-014.34.55889227046308-0.26
2017-06-014.34.574154983793631-0.27
2017-05-014.44.574154983793631-0.17
2017-04-014.44.574154983793631-0.17
2017-03-014.44.59039642208179-0.19
2017-02-014.64.590396422081790.01
2017-01-014.74.590396422081790.11
2016-12-014.74.607555372555640.09
2016-11-014.74.607555372555640.09
2016-10-014.94.607555372555640.29
2016-09-015.04.625557515037310.37
2016-08-014.94.625557515037310.27
2016-07-014.84.625557515037310.17
2016-06-014.94.644316343591080.26
2016-05-014.84.644316343591080.16
2016-04-015.14.644316343591080.46
2016-03-015.04.663734294227660.34
2016-02-014.94.663734294227660.24
2016-01-014.84.663734294227660.14
2015-12-015.04.68370405998280950.32
2015-11-015.14.68370405998280950.42
2015-10-015.04.68370405998280950.32
2015-09-015.04.7041100710725690.3
2015-08-015.14.7041100710725690.4
2015-07-015.24.7041100710725690.5
2015-06-015.34.724830114635680.58
2015-05-015.64.724830114635680.88
2015-04-015.44.724830114635680.68
2015-03-015.44.745737065872860.65
2015-02-015.54.745737065872860.75
2015-01-015.74.745737065872860.95
2014-12-015.64.766700700240140.83
2014-11-015.84.766700700240141.03
2014-10-015.74.766700700240140.93
2014-09-015.94.787589554794781.11
2014-08-016.14.787589554794781.31
2014-07-016.24.787589554794781.41
2014-06-016.14.808272805861741.29
2014-05-016.34.808272805861741.49
2014-04-016.24.808272805861741.39
2014-02-016.74.8286221299065281.87
2014-01-016.64.8286221299065281.77
2013-12-016.74.84851351487324861.85
2013-11-016.94.84851351487324862.05
2013-10-017.24.84851351487324862.35
2013-08-017.24.86782899026892.33
2013-07-017.34.86782899026892.43
2013-06-017.54.88645824592496952.61
2013-05-017.54.88645824592496952.61
2013-04-017.64.88645824592496952.71
2013-03-017.54.904300111612692.6
2013-02-017.74.904300111612692.8
2013-01-018.04.904300111612693.1
2012-12-017.94.92126387248136952.98
2012-11-017.74.92126387248136952.78
2012-10-017.84.92126387248136952.88
2012-09-017.84.937270398573322.86
2012-08-018.14.937270398573323.16
2012-07-018.24.937270398573323.26
2012-06-018.24.952253070375033.25
2012-04-018.24.952253070375033.25
2012-03-018.24.966158486415263.23
2012-02-018.34.966158486415263.33
2012-01-018.34.966158486415263.33
2011-11-018.64.97894694323216853.62
2011-10-018.84.97894694323216853.82
2011-09-019.04.990592682513384.01
2011-07-019.04.990592682513384.01
2011-06-019.15.00108390477112954.1
2011-05-019.05.00108390477112954.0
2011-04-019.15.00108390477112954.1
2011-03-019.05.010422553454273.99
2011-02-019.05.010422553454273.99
2011-01-019.15.010422553454274.09
2010-12-019.35.018623877825174.28
2010-11-019.85.018623877825174.78
2010-10-019.45.018623877825174.38
2010-09-019.55.025715787150214.47
2010-08-019.55.025715787150214.47
2010-07-019.45.025715787150214.37
2010-06-019.45.031738012680214.37
2010-05-019.65.031738012680214.57
2010-04-019.95.031738012680214.87
2010-03-019.95.036741097449884.86
2010-01-019.85.036741097449884.76
2009-11-019.95.0407852370313914.86
2009-10-0110.05.0407852370313914.96
2009-09-019.85.043938996972154.76
2009-08-019.65.043938996972154.56
2009-07-019.55.043938996972154.46
2009-06-019.55.04627793467936854.45
2009-05-019.45.04627793467936854.35
2009-04-019.05.04627793467936853.95
2009-03-018.75.047883154944253.65
2009-02-018.35.047883154944253.25
2009-01-017.85.047883154944252.75
2008-12-017.35.0488398290999292.25
2008-11-016.85.0488398290999291.75
2008-10-016.55.0488398290999291.45
2008-08-016.15.049235707966791.05
2008-07-015.85.049235707966790.75
2008-06-015.65.04915965825760.55
2008-05-015.45.04915965825760.35
2008-04-015.05.0491596582576-0.05
2008-03-015.15.048700251008360.05
2008-02-014.95.04870025100836-0.15
2008-01-015.05.04870025100836-0.05
2007-12-015.05.04794442889684-0.05
2007-10-014.75.04794442889684-0.35
2007-09-014.75.04697627705214-0.35
2007-08-014.65.04697627705214-0.45
2007-07-014.75.04697627705214-0.35
2007-06-014.65.04587591919752-0.45
2007-05-014.45.04587591919752-0.65
2007-04-014.55.04587591919752-0.55
2007-03-014.45.04471855777112-0.64
2007-01-014.65.04471855777112-0.44
2006-12-014.45.043573673107391-0.64
2006-11-014.55.043573673107391-0.54
2006-10-014.45.043573673107391-0.64
2006-09-014.55.04250439291843-0.54
2006-07-014.75.04250439291843-0.34
2006-05-014.65.04156703927619-0.44
2006-04-014.75.04156703927619-0.34
2006-03-014.75.04081085615472-0.34
2006-02-014.85.04081085615472-0.24
2006-01-014.75.04081085615472-0.34
2005-12-014.95.040277916439569-0.14
2005-11-015.05.040277916439569-0.04
2005-10-015.05.040277916439569-0.04
2005-09-015.05.04000320324226-0.04
2005-08-014.95.04000320324226-0.14
2005-07-015.05.04000320324226-0.04
2005-06-015.05.04001485646218-0.04
2005-05-015.15.040014856462180.06
2005-04-015.25.040014856462180.16
2005-03-015.25.040334571902330.16
2005-02-015.45.040334571902330.36
2005-01-015.35.040334571902330.26
2004-11-015.45.040978136949910.36
2004-10-015.55.040978136949910.46
2004-08-015.45.041956083949370.36
2004-07-015.55.041956083949370.46
2004-06-015.65.043274439987830.56
2004-04-015.65.043274439987830.56
2004-03-015.85.0449355499305280.76
2004-02-015.65.0449355499305280.56
2004-01-015.75.0449355499305280.66
2003-12-015.75.04693894822920.65
2003-11-015.85.04693894822920.75
2003-10-016.05.04693894822920.95
2003-08-016.15.049282254302451.05
2003-07-016.25.049282254302451.15
2003-06-016.35.051962066170041.25
2003-05-016.15.051962066170041.05
2003-04-016.05.051962066170040.95
2003-02-015.95.05497482750890.85
2003-01-015.85.05497482750890.75
2002-12-016.05.058317644374820.94
2002-11-015.95.058317644374820.84
2002-10-015.75.058317644374820.64
2002-08-015.75.061989029470230.64
2002-07-015.85.061989029470230.74
2002-06-015.85.06598955399520.73
2002-04-015.95.06598955399520.83
2002-03-015.75.070322389742320.63
2002-01-015.75.070322389742320.63
2001-12-015.75.07499372712236950.63
2001-11-015.55.07499372712236950.43
2001-10-015.35.07499372712236950.23
2001-09-015.05.08001305816486-0.08
2001-08-014.95.08001305816486-0.18
2001-07-014.65.08001305816486-0.48
2001-06-014.55.0853933171443-0.59
2001-05-014.35.0853933171443-0.79
2001-04-014.45.0853933171443-0.69
2001-03-014.35.09115087525391-0.79
2001-01-014.25.09115087525391-0.89
2000-11-013.95.0973053895934894-1.2
2000-10-013.95.0973053895934894-1.2
2000-09-013.95.10387951056623-1.2
2000-08-014.15.10387951056623-1.0
2000-07-014.05.10387951056623-1.1
2000-05-014.05.11089845549919-1.11
2000-04-013.85.11089845549919-1.31
2000-03-014.05.118389459825649-1.12
2000-02-014.15.118389459825649-1.02
2000-01-014.05.118389459825649-1.12
1999-12-014.05.12638112041102-1.13
1999-10-014.15.12638112041102-1.03
1999-08-014.25.13490264848964-0.93
1999-07-014.35.13490264848964-0.83
1999-06-014.35.1439830521394-0.84
1999-05-014.25.1439830521394-0.94
1999-04-014.35.1439830521394-0.84
1999-03-014.25.1536502701945-0.95
1999-02-014.45.1536502701945-0.75
1999-01-014.35.1536502701945-0.85
1998-12-014.45.16393028093661-0.76
1998-11-014.45.16393028093661-0.76
1998-10-014.55.16393028093661-0.66
1998-09-014.65.17484620977586-0.57
1998-08-014.55.17484620977586-0.67
1998-07-014.55.17484620977586-0.67
1998-06-014.55.1864174604119695-0.69
1998-05-014.45.1864174604119695-0.79
1998-04-014.35.1864174604119695-0.89
1998-03-014.75.1986588936454305-0.5
1998-02-014.65.1986588936454305-0.6
1998-01-014.65.1986588936454305-0.6
1997-12-014.75.21158007709276-0.51
1997-11-014.65.21158007709276-0.61
1997-10-014.75.21158007709276-0.51
1997-09-014.95.22518462756924-0.33
1997-08-014.85.22518462756924-0.43
1997-07-014.95.22518462756924-0.33
1997-06-015.05.23946966586832-0.24
1997-05-014.95.23946966586832-0.34
1997-04-015.15.23946966586832-0.14
1997-03-015.25.25442540113615-0.05
1997-02-015.25.25442540113615-0.05
1997-01-015.35.254425401136150.05
1996-11-015.45.27003485906816850.13
1996-10-015.25.2700348590681685-0.07
1996-09-015.25.28627376481136-0.09
1996-08-015.15.28627376481136-0.19
1996-07-015.55.286273764811360.21
1996-06-015.35.30311058781630.0
1996-05-015.65.30311058781630.3
1996-04-015.65.30311058781630.3
1996-03-015.55.3205067520316880.18
1996-02-015.55.3205067520316880.18
1996-01-015.65.3205067520316880.28
1995-11-015.65.3384170108603280.26
1995-10-015.55.3384170108603280.16
1995-09-015.65.35678998229092950.24
1995-07-015.75.35678998229092950.34
1995-05-015.65.375568835679230.22
1995-04-015.85.375568835679230.42
1995-03-015.45.394692117867140.01
1995-02-015.45.394692117867140.01
1995-01-015.65.394692117867140.21
1994-12-015.55.41409470278955050.09
1994-11-015.65.41409470278955050.19
1994-10-015.85.41409470278955050.39
1994-09-015.95.4337088455094880.47
1994-08-016.05.4337088455094880.57
1994-07-016.15.4337088455094880.67
1994-06-016.15.453465318821210.65
1994-05-016.15.453465318821210.65
1994-04-016.45.453465318821210.95
1994-03-016.55.473294608236131.03
1994-02-016.65.473294608236131.13
1994-01-016.65.473294608236131.13
1993-12-016.55.493128139375661.01
1993-11-016.65.493128139375661.11
1993-10-016.85.493128139375661.31
1993-09-016.75.51289951058536951.19
1993-08-016.85.51289951058536951.29
1993-07-016.95.51289951058536951.39
1993-06-017.05.53254570298840951.47
1993-04-017.15.53254570298840951.57
1993-03-017.05.552008240233521.45
1993-02-017.15.552008240233521.55
1993-01-017.35.552008240233521.75
1992-12-017.45.5789628277713891.82
1992-11-017.45.5789628277713891.82
1992-10-017.35.5789628277713891.72
1992-08-017.65.5955285545584592.0
1992-07-017.75.5955285545584592.1
1992-06-017.85.6120890390460452.19
1992-05-017.65.6120890390460451.99
1992-04-017.45.6120890390460451.79
1992-03-017.45.62863524260232051.77
1992-02-017.45.62863524260232051.77
1992-01-017.35.62863524260232051.67
1991-12-017.35.6451555897733011.65
1991-11-017.05.6451555897733011.35
1991-10-017.05.6451555897733011.35
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1950-05-015.55.2878660.21
1950-04-015.85.2878660.51
1950-03-016.35.2811821.02
1950-02-016.45.2811821.12
1950-01-016.55.2811821.22
1949-12-016.65.2745641.33
1949-11-016.45.2745641.13
1949-10-017.95.2745642.63
1949-09-016.65.2680131.33
1949-08-016.85.2680131.53
1949-07-016.75.2680131.43
1949-06-016.25.26151561737060550.94
1949-05-016.15.26151561737060550.84
1949-04-015.35.26151561737060550.04
1949-03-015.05.25505256652832-0.26
1949-02-014.75.25505256652832-0.56
1949-01-014.35.25505256652832-0.96

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED: Unemployment Rate (FRED series UNRATE) and Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment (FRED series NROU). UNRATE, NROU · retrieved Oct. 5, 2026 · 944 rows · as of September 2026 · monthly. Series: UNRATE, NROU. Recession shading: NBER, via FRED series USREC, retrieved Oct. 5, 2026, as of September 2026. NBER CSV: recession months. Download CSV

The official definition

No trigger exists: CBO publishes an estimate, and the gap is context, not a warning.

“The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand.”

FRED series notes, NROU (Congressional Budget Office)

“it would not be appropriate to specify a fixed goal for employment”

Federal Open Market Committee, Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, reaffirmed effective January 27, 2026, p. 1

Caveats

  • CBO re-estimates the whole series with each Budget and Economic Outlook, so every past quarter shows CBO’s current estimate, not what CBO estimated at the time.
  • CBO’s estimate is quarterly; each month uses its quarter’s value, and the latest months use CBO’s projection for the current quarter.
  • The FOMC: maximum employment “is not directly measurable and changes over time.”
  • FRED has no October 2025 unemployment rate, so that month has no point.